Single family residential (SFR) starts were a slight 3% below one year earlier in the six-month phase ending July 2022. During those same six months, multi-family construction starts were up 6% from the six-month phase a year earlier. Show
In 2021, multi-family construction experienced a 17% increase from the prior year, with 52,800 new units started. Demand for multi-family rentals has generally been higher during this past decade compared to new SFRs. But new multi-family construction continues to hit roadblocks in the form of labor and supply shortages — on top of vocal not-in-my-backyard (NIMBY) advocates. SFR construction starts in 2021 were up 7% from the previous year, for a total of 64,500 new SFRs started. SFR construction bounced upward nicely in 2021, the result of homebuyer fear of missing out (FOMO), low home-resale inventory, and demand for remote locations where zoning does not much interfere with construction starts as occurs in coastal urban centers. And yet, compared to the 150,000 SFR starts achieved in 2005 at the height of the millennial boom, the 64,500 SFR starts achieved in 2021 are a fraction of the starts needed to meet demand. State-initiated legislative efforts to add to the low- and mid-tier housing stock have focused on encouraging more multi-family construction in recent years. As a result, metro areas with the highest annual increases in construction include Sacramento, Riverside and San Diego. The most anemic growth occurs where zoning remains restrictive for housing, including San Francisco, San Jose and Los Angeles. Builders are finally beginning to cash in on legislative incentives and rising homebuyer demand. However, leaping interest rates and spiraling sales volume have crushed builder sentiment in 2022. The real estate recession along with material and labor shortages have put pressure on builder confidence. These factors combined will hold back residential construction starts from reaching their full potential until the recovery from the next recession, with prices expected to bottom around 2025 and the recovery to pick up steam around 2027. Updated September 21, 2022. Original copy posted November 2012. Chart 1 This chart illustrates the number of California residential construction starts during semi-annual phases ending in July and February. Chart update 09/21/22
Chart 2 Chart update 02/16/22
*Forecasts are made by firsttuesday and are based on current new home sale trends, actual construction starts and current government policies. Detached single family residential construction trends in California:
Detached SFR forecast:
Multi-family housing construction trends:
Multi-family housing forecast:
Statistics related to California housing:
Key factors for buildersHow do builders decide when and where to build? Builders analyze existing home sales, end user demand and local employment. Together, an analysis of these and ancillary factors produces a prediction of future construction trends. Obstacles facing SFR buildersWhile end user homebuyer-occupant demand is the ultimate driver of construction starts, several obstacles face builders in 2021-2022 that will determine the pace of SFR and condo starts. Builders rely on buyer-occupants to support new home construction. Discouraged by low inventory, high home prices and rising interest rates, buyer-occupant demand to purchase a home in 2018 remained stunted through 2019. However, 2020 saw interest rates plunge to record lows, which boosted buyer interest, a need unfulfilled by available resale homes since sellers remained timid in 2020. Yet, builders were largely unable to meet homebuyer demand due to social distancing measures and tightened access to credit. In 2021, construction began to pick up as homebuyer enthusiasm exceeded the resale market and spilled over into new homes. However, building material shortages have caused delays and soaring costs, pricing out many would-be homebuyers and holding back construction increases. Obstacles of concern to future construction starts include:
Until these factors are considered and a conclusion reached, builders (and their lenders) may not take for granted that construction starts will pay off. Expect starts to remain low until most of these factors collectively improve and starts have another 12-18 months to catch up, likely to occur around 2027. How many houses are in the World 2022?1.160 billion housing units.
How many houses are being built in the UK each year?Housing programmes delivered by Homes England resulted in 38,436 new houses starting on-site and 37,164 houses completed between 1 April 2021 and 31 March 2022, as the sector began to recover from the Covid-19 pandemic.
How many houses are built in America?There were 3.46 million houses built in the United States between 2015 and 2019.
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Number of housing units built in the United States from 1920 to 2019 (in 1,000s). How many houses are built in NZ every year?Annual number of new homes consented up 20 percent. |